China is playing a game of cat and mouse. Who will lose the most from this?

The conflict between the US and China is not approaching its end. On the contrary – in recent weeks we have been observing sudden changes and contradictory signals coming from both Washington and Beijing. It is true that the Donald Trump administration has eased export restrictions and allowed the sale of older AI accelerators from NVIDIA, but the latest information suggests that there is no enthusiasm on the other side of the barricade.

Chinese customs services were to receive informal instructions not to allow shipments with NVIDIA H200 systems to be cleared. This means that even if American regulations are loosened, the actual import of equipment may be effectively blocked at the border. In practice, Beijing’s administrative decisions become a bigger problem than the availability of chips or interest from local companies.

Importantly, this is not about a lack of demand. Chinese entities responsible for AI centers and companies developing artificial intelligence models have long been signaling a huge demand for computing power. Behind the scenes, there is even talk of demand reaching two million NVIDIA H200 chips. For the local sector, AI is not a luxury, but a condition for further technological competition with the US and the rest of the world.

Politics remains a problem. Since the statements of American officials suggesting that the Chinese should become dependent on American equipment, distrust of NVIDIA solutions has been growing in Beijing. Previous leaks indicated that the Middle Kingdom may only allow the import of H200 in strictly controlled cases, e.g. for research and development purposes in academic institutions. However, this is definitely not enough to meet the real needs of the market.