The situation is getting worse. Prices are increasing by the hour
DRAM and NAND prices have begun to fluctuate literally by the hour as the semiconductor market enters a phase of chaos driven by a surge in demand for artificial intelligence solutions. The situation is so tense that smaller companies that are unable to place an order with immediate prepayment can receive a completely new, much higher quote within a few minutes.
The market has clearly divided into two groups
On the one hand, there are about 100 largest players who, thanks to their financial strength and scale of operations, have guaranteed supplies. On the other hand, there are over 190,000 small and medium-sized enterprises fighting for what is left of available production capacity. In practice, this means a brutal selection, in which cash and negotiating position are decisive.
The largest customers – cloud service providers, car manufacturers and giants such as Apple – are able to successfully resist price increases. Samsung, SK hynix and Micron cannot afford to lose such key partners. As a result, they receive priority deliveries. More and more often, there is a strict rule – payment first, then order confirmation. For companies that do not have a large cash reserve, such conditions are often unbearable.
TrendForce recently raised its DRAM contract price forecast for Q1 2026, indicating a 90-95% quarter-over-quarter increase. In the case of NAND, the increases are 55-60%. Moreover, according to the latest reports from DigiTimes, DRAM prices may increase by another 70% in the second quarter of 2026. Analysts warn that shortages may persist until 2027.
If the crisis intensifies and small companies go bankrupt, prices will return to normal
The scale of the problem is already visible in the financial reports of equipment manufacturers. American HP revealed that the cost of memory now accounts for as much as 35% of the price of building a PC, while a quarter earlier it was only 15-18%. In turn, Gartner predicts that in 2026, deliveries of personal computers will decline by over 10% and smartphones by about 8%.
What’s next? If a significant proportion of small and medium-sized companies reduce their operations or withdraw from the market, the current shortage may quickly turn into oversupply. In such a scenario, the crisis could turn out to be largely illusory, and the market, after a period of extreme instability, would return to balance faster than many people think today.
