As Chinese electric cars invade the market and demand is growing, they could accelerate the decline of thermal in the world. Good news, since the production of fossil fuels is expected to fall during the decade.
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A few years ago, finding an electric car suited to your needs was not necessarily easy, since the offer was still quite underdeveloped. Not to mention the price, which was still very high, much higher than at present and even if parity with thermals has not yet been reached. This should however be the case by the end of the decade. In addition, the offer is constantly expanding, since most manufacturers offer at least one electric alternative in their range.
The Chinese offensive is good
Of course, we have to talk about the Chinese manufacturers, who are gaining more and more importance in the market. After having conquered their native country, the latter now wish to establish themselves in the rest of the world and in particular in Europe, to the chagrin of specialists. So much so that Brussels has announced measures to reduce its dependence on China for the production of electric car batteries. But Asian brands are still more and more numerous on the Old Continent.
We can notably mention MG, which is a hit with its MG4, but also BYD, Nio or even Xpeng, in which Volkswagen has invested in order to take advantage of its platform for its future electric vehicles. If the establishment of Chinese brands is sometimes greeted with caution, it would in fact not only have disadvantages, quite the contrary.
This is proven by the International Energy Agency, which has teamed up with Rystad Energy to forecast gasoline demand over the next few years. Relayed by the British agency Reuters, these data show the positive impact of Chinese electric cars. Indeed, the market share of “zero emission” models in the Middle Kingdom has gone from 21 to 28% between January and last May.
An impressive figure, while electric cars have outperformed diesel sales in Europe since June. This has already been the case across France since the end of last year. And that’s a very good thing, because it could accelerate the decline in gasoline demand. And the Chinese market is a good indicator.
Indeed, as reported by the site It Homethe share of gasoline cars in China is from 91% two years ago to 72% in 2023. And this fall should continue to accelerate over the next few years. According to forecasts by the Rystad Energy agency, peak demand for gasoline should eventually be reached in the first quarter of 2024.
The latest estimates were rather for 2024-2025, but demand has soared that the deadline has been shortened. And that’s a very good thing. This means concretely that after this date, theDemand for fossil fuels is expected to gradually decline over the years, which is ultimately good for the environment. According to the oil group PetroChina, this should fall by 2.3% per year between 2026 and 2030.
Admittedly, electricity production in China is mainly from coal – which is harmful to the environment. But various studies show that by driving electric in a country where the energy mix uses a lot of fossil fuels, the electric car will emit fewer greenhouse gases and pollutants during its life (from its manufacture to its recycling) than its thermal equivalent.
For their part, the United States, which remain the largest consumers of gasoline in the world, peaked in demand in 2019. The global market is forecast to enter surplus in 2025, with a surplus of 1.3 million barrels per day by 2028 if no adjustments are made. Which should logically translate to a decline in oil production intended for fuel production.
For its part, the European Union will ban the sale of new thermal cars from the year 2035. However, synthetic fuel will always be authorized, even if we know that its manufacture is polluting and that this solution has many drawbacks. Starting with its very high price.
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