A record solar flare is approaching Earth. Will there be aurora?
That’s a record! Our Sun generated an X9.05 class flare. This is probably the most powerful flare of the 25th solar cycle! Most importantly, the explosion was aimed directly at Earth. This means that Poles have a good chance of seeing the Northern Lights.
The coming days may be very attractive for fans of the Northern Lights. It promises to be a truly spectacular spectacle. All thanks to the active area number AR3842 and its surroundings. According to Karol Wójcicki from the Facebook profile Z Głową w Gwiazdach, this is Two X-class flares (X7.1 and X9.1) originate from this location, as well as many M-class flares generated by the Sun in recent days. So what can we expect?
Record flare
The X9.1 flare is the strongest flare recorded in the current solar cycle. Does this mean the biggest aurora in recent years? Not necessarily. If you don’t know, forecasting the aurora borealis is not that easy, so many current analyzes must be treated as suggestions but not certainties. But why is the upcoming aurora likely to be smaller than May’s famous geomagnetic storm? And why is it still worth sharpening your teeth for the beautiful spectacle in the sky?
This time, there are fewer CMEs ejected from the Sun than in May. According to the Look Up by Maciej Dunst profile, the coronal mass ejection from the X7.1 flare is quite weak and slow, so it is likely to cause a storm at the lowest level of G1 with the potential for G2 at a good BZ. Also because the CME itself was tilted away from the Sun-Earth axis. We can expect an impact here even today during the day.
The coronal mass ejection from the X9.1 flare should reach us on Saturday or even from Saturday to Sunday. Predictions indicate a G3 storm, although a weakened magnetosphere combined with appropriate solar wind conditions could give us an amazing view. And not only in the northern regions of Poland. Both Maciej Dunst and Karol Wójcicki indicate that we can expect something even better than the August aurora with the Perseids.
Of course, the plans may be thwarted by the clouds that are expected to cover a large area of our country in the coming days. Nevertheless, it is worth being vigilant and watching the next forecasts.