2023 doomsday scenario could benefit Samsung’s biggest rival

A new report from Counterpoint Research is very alarmist about the state of the smartphone market at the end of 2023. This vintage could simply be the worst in 10 years. Except that in passing, Apple could become the world’s No. 1, under Samsung’s nose and beard.

Last April, the analysis firms IDC and Canalys did not bode well for the smartphone market in 2023. Both presented worrying figures relating to the first quarter of the year, with respective drops of 14.6 and 12 %. This trend seems to be confirmed with the latest report from Counterpoint Research.

According to him, smartphone shipments in 2023 are expected to decline by 6% overall, for a total of 1.15 billion units. Either the lowest volume for 10 years, indicates Counterpoint Research. Several reasons would explain this decline.

Apple on track to overtake Samsung

First, sales in China would have weakened, as in some emerging countries. Then, relatively disappointing sales figures were reported across North America in the first half, which would contribute to this decline.

However, the fourth quarter of each year is often of crucial importance. For what ? Because it is during this quarter that Apple records the largest sales volumes of its new generation of iPhone, traditionally presented in mid-September. The group’s conference is expected to take place on September 12 or 13.

Moreover, it is expected that the premium segment will occupy an even greater place in China, which would then be beneficial to Apple, whose catalog is clearly positioned in this segment. In doing so, the firm at the apple could in passing gain some market share here and there… and become the world’s No. 1.

This is precisely one of Counterpoint Research’s suggestions: that Apple overtake Samsung, thanks, among other things, to its monopoly in the United States. Another element: the Cupertino group occupies a premium segment which is probably less affected by the crisis, given the relatively well-to-do clientele targeted here.

A story of days

In addition, analyst Jeff Fieldhack bets on a very small gap between the two brands, which could “literally correspond to a few days of sales“. Proof that the pair would then be in a pocket handkerchief.

In 2022, Samsung and Apple were already neck and neck in terms of market share: 22% for the first, 19% for the second, according to Canalys estimates. A gap that Apple would be able to fill this year, if these iPhone 15s are particularly successful.

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